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Prepare to stay cool because it's going to be a hot, hot summer in B.C.: Forecast

Environment and Climate Change Canada is also expecting drier than normal conditions in much of B.C., especially the Interior.

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Environment and Climate Change Canada is forecasting above-average temperatures and dry conditions this summer for most of B.C.

In Metro Vancouver there’s a 90 per cent chance that the temperature will be above normal in June, July and August, while there’s 100 per cent certainty much of the B.C. Interior will be hotter than usual, according to the federal weather agency’s seasonal outlook posted last week.

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The seasonal forecast doesn’t predict whether there will be heat waves but Ken Dosanjh, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, says B.C. residents should prepare for the possibility.

“With these predictions, it’s probably a good idea for the public to be proactive and prepare for ways to stay cool and stay hydrated this summer,” he said Saturday.

This includes installing air conditioning or fans, or figuring out where the closest library or recreation centre is with A/C to cool off and stay safe.

Dosanjh said May was warmer and drier than average, with only 16 millimetres of rain recorded at YVR or 25 per cent of the average precipitation. And he said June could also be drier than normal with the first two weeks looking clear and sunny, with temperatures five to 10 degrees hotter than normal during the day.

“Looking at June, July, and August, we are expecting a higher probability of above-normal temperatures for pretty much most of British Columbia including the Lower Mainland,” he said. “We are also in for drier conditions, which poses risks for droughts and fires.”

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He couldn’t say whether the possibility of an El Niño would push those temperatures even higher.

However, last month the World Meteorological Organization warned that many parts of the world face potential heat records because the chance of an El Niño weather pattern developing this summer has increased. It’s now estimated there’s a 60 per cent chance that El Niño will develop by the end of July, and an 80 per cent chance it will by the end of September, according to the WMO.

The concern is that a strong El Niño could create what the WMO calls a “double whammy,” where the ocean-warming phenomenon is combined with human-induced warming from greenhouse gases. This happened in 2016, which was globally the warmest year on record.

In B.C., past El Niños, like the one in 2016, have contributed to heat waves and more intense wildfires, said Dylan Clark, associate director of research and operations at the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions at the University of Victoria.

He said an El Niño summer doesn’t necessarily mean that B.C. will see a disaster as deadly as the 2021 heat dome, but it does mean that governments should prepare now for the possibility.

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Summer seasonal forecast
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.

For more on this read Climate experts say it could be an El Niño year. Here’s what that means for B.C.

ticrawford@postmedia.com

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