U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic unilateralism represents nothing less than abdication of global economic and political leadership. Trump's withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, his rejection of the Iran nuclear deal, his tariff war and his frequent attacks on allies and embrace of adversaries have rapidly turned the United States into an unreliable partner in upholding the international order.
But the administration's "America First" policies have done more than disqualify the U.S. from global leadership. They have also created space for other countries to re-shape the international system to their liking. The influence of China, in particular, is likely to be enhanced.
Consider, for example, that if the European Union perceives the U.S. as an unreliable trade partner, it will have a correspondingly stronger incentive to negotiate a trade deal with China on terms acceptable to President Xi Jinping's government. More generally, if the U.S. turns its back on the global order, China will be well positioned to take the lead on reforming the rules of international trade and investment.